Poll Round-Up – Some Implications for Final Weeks

The Conservative lead continues to plummet.

In times of crisis, people are drawn to the “stability” of government. But not in this election.

Despite the horrific events on Monday, Theresa May and her Conservative Party have fallen further still.

A new Opinium poll shows Theresa May’s personal ratings have dropped by 60% in just six weeks.

As a Party, the Conservatives have dropped 1 point over the past week, whith Labour climbing 2.

In a separate ORB poll, Labour gained 4 points on the Conservatives, who dropped 2 points. The gap measured is now just six points. Again, this poll was conducted after the attack on Monday.

There are other polls showing Labour’s gain slipping, with YouGov – putting Labout just five points behind the Conservatives a few days ago – now showing a drop of 2 points (although this fall, crucially, did not swing to the Conservatives).

ICM Research logged a Labour fall of 1 point – but this was mirrored by a Conservative loss of an equal, one point.

The crucial point is this: despite a horrific attack on Monday which should – as normally happens – draw the public to the “stability” of government; it hasn’t.

In all polls since the attack, the Conservatives have not gained any ground on Labour and – on the whole – have lost it.

This isn’t normal, and shows just how much Theresa May is still struggling with the Conservative manifesto pledges (or lack of them).

Jeremy Corbyn, meanwhile, is rising in personal approval ratings precisely because he is willing to be decisive, willing to stick to his principles (whether you agree with them or not), and the Labour pledges are – in fact – very popular with most people in the UK.

Increasingly, the “strong and stable” image of Theresa May is evaporating.

The Conservative Party looks increasingly confused, arrogant, mean – even lazy; given how much they have taken the campaign – and the public – for granted.

Labour is showing that it can defy the odds – that Jeremy Corbyn, who was 200/1 to win the Labour leadership, is a serial odds-beater.

The Conservatives are panicking.

It’s why they delayed resuming their campaign and its’ why Conservative social media has flooded the internet with character attacks on Corbyn.

If the Conservative meltdown continues, Theresa May will keep making mistakes; increasingly out-of-touch, irritated and reckless.

This will not play well on our TV screens on Monday, where both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn face a live Q&A audience on Sky News (see details here).

Jeremy Corbyn thrives in these situations. He answers questions directly. He refuses to launch personal attacks. He focuses on issues and policies which people care about.

If the Q&A is moderated fairly – and if both candidates are asked relevant questions to the current election – Theresa May will come out of this with some serious bruising, allowing Jeremy to rise in the polls further still.

Come the end of the month, we could be looking at a more uniformed 5 point gap across most polling companies, heading into the last several days of the election campaign.

If Jeremy can do this, then a Labour win may not just be a possibility – it might even be probable.

I’ll be heading out on the Labour doorstep to marginal seats in London over the next two weeks – and it would be great to see some of you there :-)

Message me @politicstim on Instagram or Twitter and we can discuss things further!